PARTY PANIC REMATCH SERIES

In private conversations, top Biden allies share two chief concerns. While his portion of the electorate may have shrunk since leaving office, he won more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016 and his MAGA base remains fervent. “Given the Republican bias in the Electoral College - any Republican, including Trump, could win the election.” “Trump is a tremendously flawed candidate who has hurt his party in every election since 2016, but it’s impossible to say that he is the weakest because none of these other Republicans have been on the national stage before,” said Dan Pfeiffer, who served as an adviser to former President Barack Obama. They fret that they might jinx the election too. “It’s tough to tell where the public will be by the fall of 2024, but getting indicted has never served a candidate well,” he said.īut even as many Democrats are quietly betting that Trump is the most damaged potential GOP nominee, some are wondering whether that viewpoint misses something fundamental about his support. Joe Caiazzo, a Democratic strategist and Clinton campaign alumni, agreed. “What possibly would you like about what Trump has done since Election Day 2020?” one Biden aide mused. 6 insurrection, several criminal investigations and years of election denialism. They have a difficult time imagining that a voter who went for Trump in 2016, but then ran away from him in 2020, would return to cast their ballot for the former president after the Jan.

Some first-time voters and disaffected Democrats also went for Trump, while some on the left opted to stay home.īut four years later, many of those same swing voters broke away from him, weary of his chaos and frustrated by his handling of the COVID pandemic.īiden advisors are confident that those swing voters are now permanently out of Trump’s reach, according to the four senior people.

PARTY PANIC REMATCH SERIES

He did so in part because swing voters, Independents and some late-deciders broke toward him after a series of October surprises, along with Clinton fatigue and a thirst for change. Trump won in 2016 by the slimmest of margins, losing the popular vote to Clinton but squeaking out victories in a series of battleground states to capture the electoral college. President Joe Biden’s most senior advisors have watched Trump’s GOP poll numbers surge, which have only reinforced their belief that the nation’s 45th president will stand as the Republicans’ nominee to be its 47th, according to four Biden allies not authorized to publicly discuss private conversations.Īnd they believe Trump is also likely the Republicans’ most beatable nominee.įirst and foremost, Biden world points to the 2020 election as the top reason for confidence in a potential rematch: We beat Trump once, they say, and will again.ĭavid Siders and Anita Kumar and Christopher Cadelago Inside the White House, a more bullish view of the race has come into focus. But he said he’s personally not sure of it - given the passionate following he maintains and the historic underappreciation of his support. John Fetterman’s campaign, conceded that the “universal consensus” was that Trump was “the weakest candidate” in the GOP field. Tommy McDonald, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist who worked as a media consultant for Sen. “And he likely will take on more water over time as several of the other legal cases play out.” “I’d say in a general election Trump may be the weakest of the major GOP contenders,” said Democratic strategist Mark Longabaugh.

Party panic rematch